February 25th, 2026

USCSSO @GWU
1 day ago
3 min read

Overview

This week, we discuss tensions over the expiration of the New START treaty and the easing of tensions between the Philippines and China.

Defense

United States Alleges Secret Nuclear Weapon Test in China

By Contributor Allie Maury

The U.S. accuses China of conducting a secret nuclear weapon test following the expiration of the New START treaty in early February.

Pictured Above: Chinese Missiles. Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images, sourced from Politico

Allegations: Earlier this month, the US alleged during the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva that China conducted at least one nuclear explosive test in 2020. Both the Kremlin and Beijing deny the accusations. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization also states that these claims are unfounded. Later, the U.S. stated that they would begin nuclear testing on an “equal basis” with China and Russia.

History of Nuclear Testing: Most countries have not performed explosive nuclear tests in years under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. While the US, China, and Russia are not signatories to this treaty, all countries have self-imposed limits on nuclear testing. Subcritical testing, which does not create a self-sustaining chain reaction, is still allowed under the CTBT. However, in 2019, the State Department alleged concerns about China’s adherence due to activity at their Lop Nur testing site. In addition to this, China’s stockpile of nuclear arms has been growing over the past few years.

Implications: With the expiration of the New START arms reduction treaty between the U.S. and Russia in early February, many are concerned that the norm against nuclear testing is disappearing. NPR states that the alleged tests could have either been performed to ensure that bombs don’t accidentally detonate or to develop new types of nuclear weapons. With the increasing number of warheads in China’s stockpile, the lack of explanation for the alleged testing, and tensions between the two superpowers regarding Taiwan and Latin America, the U.S. is concerned about Beijing’s ambitions. In addition to this, because the U.S. is no longer constrained by the provisions of the expired New START disarmament treaty, China has concerns about lagging behind in the arms race.

Diplomacy

Philippines-Chinese Talks Ease Tensions in ‘War of Words’

By Newsletter Director Jason Holman

On Feb. 23rd China’s Ambassador to the Philippines met with high ranking state officials to ease growing tensions between the two countries.

Pictured Left to Right: Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan, Philippines Senate Foreign Relations Panel Chairman Erwin Tulfo and Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazarro. (via. ManilaStandard)

Manila-Embassy: On Feb. 23rd China’s Ambassador to the Philippines Jing Quan met with top Filipino Foreign Affairs officials, Erwin Tulfo and Theresa Lazarro, to discuss China’s support for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. The meeting was a way to ease rising tensions between the two states. The largest of these tensions came Feb. 16 with a statement from the Manila Embassy’s spokesperson Ji Lingpeng stating that continued diplomatic disputes could “cost millions of jobs” for Filipinos. Remarks which the Filipino Department of Foreign Affairs saw as inflammatory and coercive, with China being the largest source of imports for the Philippines since 2013.

Navy & Senate: Recent bouts of tensions between the two countries began over Filipino Coast Guard Spokesman Jay Tarriela. Tarriela displayed caricatures of Chinese President Xi Jinping in a public lecture, provoking strong backlash from Chinese officials. In return Filipino Senators called for the expulsion of Chinese Embassy Officials. Tensions between China and the Philippines may continue with Tarriela and other state officials' recent visit to Thitu island. Thitu island is the Philippines largest outpost in the Spratly Islands. Thitu as well as The Philippines Kalayaan islands are apart of the broader Spratly Islands. These islands are situated in the South China Sea and disputed between several countries, the largest of which being China.

South-China Sea: There have been increasing confrontations between the Philippines and China Coast Guards in the region since late 2025. In response to these tensions The Philippines have sought defensive cooperation with other states, including the US. The Philippines have also focused on ways to ease tensions. With The Philippines chairmanship of ASEAN in 2026 the country has placed a large focus on codifying a behavior of conduct in the South China Sea. China has largely agreed with the approach to a diplomatic solution to tensions in the region, and the meeting on Feb. 23 works to confirm this. Official talks on the code are set to begin in March and are expected to be concluded by the end of 2026.