July 28th, 2025
- USCSSO @GWU
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
Overview
This week, we discuss China placing exit bans on two American citizens, and Taiwan’s recall elections that resulted in a political setback to President Lai.
Diplomacy & Security
Two Americans Recently Placed Under Exit Bans By the Chinese Government
By Vice President Ryan Peele
An unidentified U.S. government employee and Wells Fargo executive have been blocked from leaving China, the former due to a visa application error, and the latter due to her involvement in a criminal investigation.
Chengyue Mao, Chairwoman of FCI at Wells Fargo (via South China Morning Post)
Stuck in China: Last Tuesday, it was confirmed that an unidentified U.S. government employee was banned from leaving China by the PRC government. The employee, who worked for the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, is the second U.S. citizen to have been confirmed to have received an exit ban in the past few weeks, with Wells Fargo executive Chengyue Mao also being recently forbidden from leaving China. While the U.S. PTO employee only received an exit ban because he allegedly did not disclose his affiliation with the U.S. government on his visa, Mao is now a part of a criminal investigation, according to China’s Foreign Ministry. The PRC’s exit bans can be severe, with some U.S. citizens being stranded in China for years. They also come at a time of high economic tension between Washington and Beijing.
An Occurrence with Precedent: The Dui Hua Foundation estimates that 30 to 50 Americans are currently under Chinese exit bans, with even more outright detained. U.S. citizen Henry Cai has been under a Chinese exit ban since 2017, after the PRC claimed he and his business owed millions of dollars in debt. Although the United States State Department has said it is working toward a diplomatic situation to get the Americans released, U.S. citizens have been detained for long periods of time, like David Lin, who has been imprisoned since 2006 for contract fraud. While it may be possible for the unidentified U.S. PTO employee to be released, Mao’s situation seems more difficult, considering she may be facing criminal charges and convictions. Wells Fargo has suspended all business travel to China in response to Mao’s exit ban.
Contentious Relations: The exit bans of Mao and the U.S. government employee threaten to sour the fragile relationship between the Chinese government and Trump administration. U.S. President Donald Trump has recently allowed American company NVIDIA to export their technologically important H20 semiconductor chips to China, and seems open to a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, harsh tariffs on China, as well as the arrest of two Chinese students in Michigan for allegedly smuggling an agricultural pathogen into the U.S. have already put strain on the already contentious relationship between Washington and Beijing. While the Trump administration has been able to negotiate the release of Americans imprisoned in Venezuela, it is not clear if it will be able to do the same in China, as both countries vie for economic and military superiority.
Diplomacy & Politics
Taiwan’s “Great Recall” Elections Results in Setback for President Lai
By Director Aiden Wegener
On July 26, several opposition lawmakers in Taiwan’s legislature survived an unprecedented recall election that could have given the majority to President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Recall supporters protest in Taipei earlier this July (via NYT).
Recall Elections: In Taiwan, voters can utilize a democratic mechanism known as a recall, in which a vote is held to remove a member of the Legislative Yuan. These elections can be triggered if a recall petition receives signatures from at least 10% of voters in a given constituency. Once the election is held, the legislator is removed if the total amount of “yes” votes outnumbers the number of “no” votes and exceeds 25% of eligible voters.
The ”Great Recall”: Recall elections have been enshrined in Taiwan’s Constitution for decades, but haven’t been seen used in such a coordinated fashion. In 2024, Taiwan’s national elections resulted in the DPP’s Lai-Ching-te winning the presidency, and the opposition Guomindang (KMT) narrowly winning the Legislative Yuan (LY) by forming a coalition with the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Since then, the ruling coalition has taken actions that have been controversial amongst many of the Taiwanese people. Most notably, several KMT lawmakers have been criticized for being too close to Beijing, which claims Taiwan to be part of its sovereign territory. For example, in April 2024, KMT caucus leader Fu Kun-Chi led a delegation to meet with senior CCP officials, including Wang Huning, Xi Jinping’s chief advisor on Taiwan affairs. Many Taiwanese people saw this as a betrayal of Taiwan’s long-standing promotion of its own self-determination and independence. These voters mobilized a grassroots effort to force a recall on several China-friendly KMT lawmakers, organizing petitions and gathering the votes to force a recall election. In the end, over 30 KMT legislators were recalled, two dozen of whom were set to have their elections on July 26. If enough of the recall elections were successful, the DPP could have gained a majority in the Legislative Yuan, giving President Lai a greater ability to enact his agenda.
Results and Implications: Of the 24 districts that had recall elections on Saturday, not a single one resulted in a successful recall in a major victory for the KMT. As a result, the KMT-TPP coalition still holds on to its slim majority in the LY, keeping President Lai’s influence to a minimum. There are still 7 recall elections slated for August, but many have already declared a KMT victory. Experts have also declared this a win for Beijing, as they avoid seeing the pro-independence DPP gain more political power.
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