March 11th, 2026

USCSSO @GWU
3 hours ago
5 min read

Overview

This week, we discuss an upcoming law regarding China's ethnic minorities, a status update on the economy, and Beijing's response to the war in Iran.

Domestic

Beijing Expands Assimilation of Ethnic Minorities

By Newsletter Director Lindsey Spain

A new law is set for approval at China’s annual parliamentary session later this week which would further hegemonize ethnic minorities under the dominant Han culture.

Pictured Above: Uyghur woman in China’s Xinjiang Province (via Aflo)

Law Details: Later this week, the China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is set to adopt a Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress (民族团结进步促进法), which ultimately aims to advance President Xi Jinping’s viewpoint on the assimilation of China’s ethnic minorities into the dominant Han culture. The Law generally includes broad policy statements, lowering the status of minority languages in favour of Mandarin, encouraging intermarriage between Han Chinese and other ethnicities, and requiring that parents “educate and guide minors to love the Chinese Communist Party.” Further, it specifically prohibits any acts seen as damaging to “ethnic unity.” The Law’s language is oriented around the “Twelve Musts,” canonical components of Xi’s “Important Thinking.” The Communist Party explicitly called for the enactment of the Law at the 2024 Third Plenum Decision, with the Party disclosing in August 2025 that the full Politburo had discussed a draft of the law, the first such disclosure in nearly four decades.

Beijing's Reasoning: In a speech at the Central Conference on Ethnic Work, held between August 27th-28th 2025, Xi stated that the greatest achievement of the Party’s ethnic work was that it had “forged a correct path with Chinese characteristics for resolving ethnic issues.” Currently, there are 55 official ethnic minorities in China, with their total population numbering about 125.5 million. However, their population is still dwarfed by Han Chinese, who make up 90% of China’s population. Beijing justifies their heavy-handed approach concerning minority treatment by citing previous violent insurrections, such as a 2008 uprising in Lhasa by Tibetan monks, which resulted in an estimated 200 deaths. This law formally codifies a desire for greater “ethnic unity” which has reigned preeminent throughout the entirety of Xi’s tenure.

Global Reaction: On the 31st of August 2022, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) released a report determining that Beijing's actions toward the Uyghur population in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region constituted “serious human rights violations.” More than three years following the release of this report, human rights experts express concern that the proposed law will further infringe on the rights of China’s ethnic minorities.

Economics

China’s Red-Hot Economy Cooling? China Lowers GDP Growth Target for 2026

By Newsletter Director Jason Holman

On March 5th at the start of China’s National People’s Congress the country announced a GDP Growth Target of 4.5%-5%, the lowest the country has seen since 1991.

Pictured Above: Ceiling decoration in The Great Hall of the People, Beijing at the National Peoples Congress on March 5th. (via. CNN)

Economic Report: At the opening of the National People’s Congress on March 5th Premier Li Qiang announced a GDP Growth Target of 4.5%-5% for 2026. This GDP growth target is the lowest the country has had since 1991. This lower target reflects China’s response to increased domestic pressures and facing an increasingly ‘grave and complex’ global environment. The lowered target has been set to allow the country to better tackle ‘deep seated structural problems’.

Cooling-Economy: Over 2/3s of China’s provinces have similarly scaled back growth ambitions for 2026. One large issue facing the Chinese economy is involution. China has long relied on a strong manufacturing base for its powerful economic growth. However, this has resulted in increased competition amongst companies, driving down prices and hurting company profits. China’s PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) which measures market conditions by looking at factory managers dropped to 49 in Feb. from 49.3 in Jan. 2026. PMI is measured on a 0-100 scale, with numbers below 50 indicating a contracting economy. This has been attributed to China’s low domestic consumption, which is one of the main factors that China plans to address in the years to come.

Steps-Forward: China is trying to transition its economy from one focused on manufacturing and exports to one based on domestic consumption. There will be increased investment in AI, robotics and biomedicine, with there being a 10% increase in the annual budget for science and technology. AI, robotics, and EVs have already added 0.8% to China’s GDP from 2023-2025. Additionally China is to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term treasury bonds in 2026. This is alongside 250 billion yuan in bonds for citizens looking to trade-in old cars and appliances. These measures will likely help boost China’s low domestic consumption. Despite China’s lowered planned GDP growth rate the country is still in line with its goals to double the size of its economy by 2035

Diplomacy

Beijing Condemns U.S. Attack on Iran While Withholding Military Support

By Contributor Allie Maury

China offers rhetorical support to Tehran while avoiding direct action.

Pictured Above: President Xi with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in January 2016, watched over by a portrait of Ayatollah Khomeini (via The Times)

Beijing’s Reaction: The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has turned international eyes toward the Middle East, and China is no exception. Though China joined Russia in condemning the attack as a violation of international law and called for a meeting of the UN Security Council, neither country has offered security support to Iran. Despite the friendly relations between Beijing and Khamenei, the former Ayatollah of Iran who was killed in the February 28th attack, Iran is continuing the war with limited support from major international players like China.

The China-Iran Relationship: While China seeks balanced ties across the Middle East, they hold great economic importance to Iran as the biggest importer of Iranian oil. China typically avoids entering alliances with defense obligations, opting to focus on trade and investment. With Iran, this was reflected through a 25-year long 2021 agreement that strengthened their economic partnership while including Iran in the Belt and Road Initiative. In addition to this, China and Iran, along with Russia and North Korea, have recently been showing symbolic unity, such as during China’s 2023 military parade where leaders from the four countries stood alongside each other.

Lack of Support for Iran: Despite rhetorical condemnation of the attacks, China’s support for Iran is proving to be limited. While China’s diplomatic and economic support is vital to Iran, Beijing has other priorities. However, this doesn’t mean that China will go unimpacted by this conflict. Iranian oil accounts for around 13% of China’s seaborne crude oil intake, and conflicts in the region will likely impact the shipping routes through which China gets their methanol supply. Beijing has started to built a positive relationship with Washington and is likely hesitant to jeopardize it. In addition to this, their concern lies in the Indo-Pacific and will likely take advantage of the Iranian conflict to divert U.S. attention from this region. The conflict also gives them the opportunity to see U.S. offense in action in Iran, which might inform Beijing of U.S. military capabilities. Ultimately, China will likely play the mediator in this conflict and focus on diplomacy and crisis management.