March 24th, 2026
- USCSSO @GWU
- 1 day ago
- 5 min read
Overview
This week, we discuss China's zero-tariff policy, fuel export restrictions, and a delay of President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping.
Trade
China to Eliminate Tariffs on African Imports Starting May 1st
By Contributor Allie Maury
China’s zero-tariff policy will allow African countries to more easily send goods to the Chinese market.
Republic of the Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso and Chinese President Xi Jinping (via Reuters)
China’s New Policy: On May 1st, China will implement a zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries. This policy will apply to all the African countries with which China has diplomatic relations. In addition to this, China will make further attempts to initiate joint economic partnership pacts across the continent. Access to the Chinese market will be expanded for African countries through the improvement of initiatives such as the “green channel”, established in 2021 with the goal of making it easier for African countries to export agricultural products to China.
Trade Background: Historically, China has made moves to build Africa’s industrial capacity, but most African exports to China are “low value, primary products” such as natural resources and minerals. China also runs a trade deficit with the continent, and China-Africa trade reached $222 billion in early 2025. In the summer of 2025, China announced that African countries would face no tariffs on Chinese imports, which could possibly increase this trade.
Future Chinese-African Relations: African countries are increasingly steering away from trade with the U.S. due to increased protectionist measures taken by the U.S. government. However, while the U.S. increases protectionism, China is mitigating it. This will likely increase Chinese-African trade once the policy goes into effect, but it is also significant for the development of Chinese relations with African countries in the future. This move could potential attract more foreign direct investment to African countries, making it easier for them to enter the Chinese market. It might also increase the potential for the development of domestic industrial systems in African countries. This move will simultaneously put a greater variety of agricultural products into the Chinese market while boosting African countries’ capacity for agricultural exports. However, critics say that, ultimately, Africa needs more economic and industrial restructuring to improve. Without this, the new policy may just cement Africa’s status as an exporter of raw materials.
Trade
Energy Pressures Rise: China Halts Fuel Exports as Iran Conflict Disrupts Key Oil Route
By Contributor Mitran Kumar
China has moved to restrict fuel exports in response to supply risks from the Iran conflict, highlighting its reliance on Middle Eastern energy and the broader economic ripple effects of instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
Tankers sail in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah on 11 March 2026. (Reuters)
Background: A regional conflict broke out in Iran on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, prompting retaliatory attacks across the region. The escalation has resulted in a disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply, or about 20 million barrels per day. With sea mines and strikes by Iran limiting the movement of shipping vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a shift in oil markets has since swept the global economy. Oil markets reacted immediately, with benchmark crude prices jumping more than 12–13% in a single day. The danger posed by Iranian military assets has continued to make movement through international waters extremely limited, with around 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf and vessels facing fees of up to $2 million for passage.
Trade Response: In response to the tightening supply, Chinese authorities instructed state-owned refiners to halt exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and to limit new overseas sales contracts and conserve domestic supply. China is the world’s largest crude oil importer, bringing in about 11 million barrels per day, much of it sourced from or routed through the Middle East. As exports slowed, regional markets tightened quickly. Fuel shortages across Asia pushed prices higher, while cargoes totaling about 1.6 million barrels were redirected from Europe to Asia to offset reduced supply. At the same time, China’s export restrictions further constrained availability, tightening regional fuel markets and increasing diesel and jet fuel prices, where exports had previously been valued at over $20 billion annually.
Broader Impact: Beyond export restrictions, China has taken other measures to soften the blow and mitigate already escalating geopolitical tensions in the region. Officials have called for an immediate ceasefire and emphasized the need to keep key shipping routes open, while avoiding any direct military escalation. China continues to purchase a limited supply of discounted Iranian crude and maintains tanker flows through alternative routes, including efforts to continue importing Iranian oil despite sanctions and shipping disruptions. However, these movements have been far too limited to provide any serious stability in imports. China’s export restrictions have had measurable effects on global markets. Reduced fuel shipments have tightened supply across Asia, pushing diesel prices to around $150 per barrel and jet fuel to approximately $163 per barrel. In response, European refiners have increased shipments to Asia, with at least 1.6 million barrels of gasoline recently redirected eastward. As the conflict in the Middle East continues, creating the potential for long term shifts in oil exports from the Persian Gulf, it remains to be seen how China will adjust its long term strategies.
Diplomacy
Protracted Conflict: War Delays US President’s Beijing Visit
By Newsletter Director Jason Holman
On March 16th President Donald Trump announced he would delay his planned meeting with President Xi Jinping.
US Treasury Secretary Soctt Bessent & US Trade Representative Jameison Greer met with Chinese counterparts in Paris. (via. NYT)
Postponement: On March 16th President Trump announced that his much anticipated summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing would be delayed 5 to 6 weeks later than originally planned. Further into the week Trump would announce further delays to the meeting. Eventually Trump announced that no meeting would take place until after the active part of the Iran War is concluded. The meeting had originally been announced by Trump to be planned for March 31st to April 2nd. It will be the first by a sitting US President since Trump visited in 2017.
U.S.-China Board of Trade: As a part of a series of talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in Paris on March 15th to discuss trade. These talks saw the US call on China to increase its imports of Boeing Airliners and US oil. Additionally the two sides smoothed out agricultural topics, with China reaffirming plans to purchase 25 million metric tonnes of US soybeans over the next 3 years. The two sides also proposed the creation of a ‘U.S.-China Board of Trade’. Details on the proposed commission were vague but it would focus on increasing areas of mutual benefit in trade. However, further discussions on the board were planned to take place at the summit between Xi and Trump.
Strategic Calculations: The summit has been planned not only to discuss trade but to reset relations between China and the US after the protracted trade conflict in 2025. The summit’s delay has been welcomed by some. Many Chinese observers have stated that the meeting was underplanned claiming this would only harm relations between the US and China. US observers believe that China’s reliance on Iranian oil might give the US greater leverage in any negotiations. However China has one of the largest reserves of oil internationally. A delay only serves to allow the US to get further bogged down in the middle east and likely will strengthen China’s hand in any future negotiations.
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