November 3rd, 2025
- USCSSO @GWU
- 2 days ago
- 5 min read
Overview
This week, we discuss China's stance on U.S. nuclear testing, a new free-trade deal, and a ceasefire in Myanmar.
Diplomacy
China Criticizes U.S. Plans to Resume Nuclear Testing
By Contributor Andrew Graves
On October 30, Donald Trump called on the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992. That move drew an immediate response from Beijing and other supporters of a ban on nuclear explosions.
Display of China's nuclear arsenal (via The Economist)
A Major Shift: A moratorium on live nuclear detonations has been observed by the United States for decades, though it never ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Trump insisted this move is to be made to maintain a strategic balance with Russia and China. Further, it remains unclear whether the testing would involve full detonations or only non-explosive experiments.
Beijing’s Reaction: The Chinese Foreign Ministry called the decision a serious provocation, with a spokeswoman saying the United States must live up to its commitments under global non-proliferation norms, warning that testing could erode trust in arms-control institutions. State media accused Washington of double standards when it speaks of control yet considers new testing.
Strategic Outlook: Moscow replied that it will consider similar measures if the United States goes ahead with the plan, while other allies have maintained their commitment to a nuclear detonation ban. Some experts warn that renewed testing could reignite an arms-race mentality and undermine longstanding norms. China has steadily increased its nuclear capabilities in recent years while maintaining a no-first-use policy. From 2020 to 2025, China doubled the size of its nuclear arsenal. The US Department of Defense/War predicts that the Chinese will have access to over 1,000 warheads by the year 2030. However, it is unlikely China will resume detonations immediately. That said, Beijing could use the U.S. decision as leverage to modernize its forces or to push back in diplomatic talks. The shift adds pressure to already tense relations between Washington and Beijing and provides a dangerous precedent to a practice previously thought of as abnormal.
Trade
Unity & Strength: ASEAN-China Reach New Free-Trade Deal
By Contributor Jason Holman
On Oct. 28 China and ASEAN signed an updated version of their on-going free trade deal at the end of ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Logo of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in front of Petronas Twin Towers ahead of the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Oct. 23 (via FP)
ACFTA 3.0: On Oct. 28 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Malaysian Prime Minister & ASEAN Chair Anwar Ibrahim signed the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0. The ACFTA reduces the tariffs on goods and increases the service and investment flows between the economies of China and the 11 member states of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). The agreement represents the third edition of the ACFTA, which was first signed in 2002 and implemented in 2010. This new addition has added 9 new chapters to the agreement and has increased emphasis on areas such as the digital economy, green economic growth, supply chain connectivity, and supporting small & medium enterprises.
Unity & Strength: China has been ASEAN’s largest trade partner for 16 consecutive years. Two-way trade between the two countries since the first ACFTA was implemented has increased 9.6% year on year, going from $235.5 billion in 2010 to $771 billion in 2024. These negotiations on the newest addition of the ACFTA began in November 2022 and were concluded in May 2025 before finally being signed this month. In April 2025, US tariffs would hit ASEAN hard, with member states such as Vietnam and Cambodia being hit with tariffs of over 40%. Vietnam and Cambodia are especially vulnerable, as over 25% of their exports in 2024 were destined for US markets.
Uneasy Waters: ASEAN’s ongoing cooperation with China is even more vital in this uneasy political atmosphere. However,tensions continue to brew between these two neighbors. There have been many disputes over territory in the South China Sea, with Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines all having disputes with China in the region. The Philippines has been the most vocal state cautioning against cooperation after claiming harassment by the Chinese military in the South China Sea. To alleviate these tensions, China and ASEAN in 2023 agreed to accelerate negotiations on a potential code of conduct, with plans for a full agreement expected in 2026.
Diplomacy
Divide & Conquer: China Brokers Ceasefire in Myanmar
By Contributor Jason Holman
On Oct. 29 the TNLA announced it had reached a ceasefire with Myanmar after talks held in Kunming, China.
A TNLA soldier guarding a checkpoint in the strategic city of Kyaukme in Northern Myanmar. (via. Dhaka Tribune)
Ceasefire: On Oct. 29 the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) announced it had reached a ceasefire with the government of Myanmar after China-mediated talks held on Oct. 27 and 28 in Kunming, China. The rebels have given back control of the key cities of Nawnghiko, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw, which lay on Asia Highway 14 (AH14) which links China and Myanmar. Further there are plans for them to withdraw from the economic centers Mogok and Momeik in exchange for the cessation of Myanmar’s military offensives and airstrikes on TNLA held areas.
Civil War: Ethnic rebel groups such as the TNLA have been conflicting with Myanmar for decades but the country has been in civil-war since the military overthrew the democratic government in 2021. In 2023 the TNLA along with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Arakan Army (AA) formed the Three Brotherhood Alliance and initiated Operation 1027. Operation 1027 allowed the rebels to capture nearly 180 military outposts, cities such as Kyaukme on AH14, and encroach upon Myanmar’s 2nd largest city Mandalay which many analysts thought would spell the end of the government of Myanmar.
Consolidation: Myanmar and AH14 are strategic areas of importance for China, giving access to the Indian Ocean and to important oil pipelines for Southwestern China. China supplies Myanmar with high-tech drones that have been incredibly transformative in enabling strikes on rebel areas. Massive pressure has been placed on the rebel groups, arresting leaders in China, clamping down on access to Chinese drones, and getting the MNDAA to hand-over several cities to Myanmar in a previous ceasefire. Chinese pressure has fractured the Three Brotherhood Alliance, forcing the MNDAA and TNLA into ceasefires with Myanmar. However, the AA has largely avoided Chinese pressure operating in regions not along the Chinese border, and continues to make gains in Western Myanmar. The AA is now attempting to seize the city of Sittwe, which holds major gas pipelines that connect to China’s Yunnan province.
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